The economics of bidding
Calculate bid costs, expected contribution, financing and break-even. Every assumption is under your control.
Calculation results
Back to inputs ↑Win probability sensitivity
| Probability | Per bid | Annual bid cohort |
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Methodology, formulas and limits
R = V × d / 100Revenue: value V × expected drawdown d. Use 100% for a fully delivered contract. A framework ceiling is not guaranteed revenue.
G = R × m / 100Contribution: revenue R × margin m after direct delivery costs, before financing, overhead and tax. Margin is not markup.
F = K × i / 100 × D / 365Simple financing cost on average capital K for D days at annual rate i. Set K = 0 if financing is already included in the margin.
C = h × w + O + ABid cost: hours h × fully loaded hourly cost w + other costs O + analysis A. Incurred even if the bid loses.
E = p / 100 × (G − F) − CExpected net contribution: probability-weighted contribution if won, less bid costs. This is not accounting net profit.
E_year = N × E; B_year = N × CThe annual cohort assumes N comparable bids. Contribution spans the full delivery of those contracts, not necessarily one calendar year. Probability does not guarantee an actual number of wins.
ROI = E / C × 100; p* = C / (G − F) × 100Return on bid costs and break-even probability. A zero denominator produces a dash; p* above 100% is unattainable.
W = ceil(B_year / (G − F)); Δp = A / (G − F) × 100Wins needed to cover the annual budget and percentage-point uplift needed to cover analysis. Δp is a threshold, not a claim that analysis improves the chance of winning.
All values are CZK, excluding recoverable VAT. Include non-recoverable VAT in costs. Overhead, income tax, penalties, discounting and payment schedules are excluded. Financing uses average tied capital; do not double count it in margin. Calculations run only in your browser; inputs are not stored or sent.
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